Tech companies predict the (economic) future Earnings season is coming to a close, with public tech companies wrapping up their Q4 and 2020 disclosures. We don't care too much about the bigger players' results here at TechCrunch, but smaller tech companies we knew when they were wee startups can provide startup-related data points worth digesting. So, each quarter The Exchange spends time chatting with a host of CEOs and CFOs, trying to figure what's going on so that we can relay the information to private companies. Sometimes it's useful, as our chat with recent fintech IPO Upstart proved after we got to noodle with the company about rising acceptance of AI in the conservative banking industry. This week we caught up with Yext CEO Howard Lerman and Smartsheet CEO Mark Mader. Yext builds data products for small businesses, and is betting its future on search products. Smartsheet is a software company that works in the collaboration, no-code, and future-of-work spaces. They are pretty different companies, really. But what they did share this time 'round the earnings cycle were macro notes, or details regarding their forward financial guidance and what economic conditions they anticipate. As a macro-nerd, it piqued my interest. Yext cited a number of macroeconomic headwinds when it reported its Q4 results. And tying its future results somewhat to an uncertain macro picture, the company said that it is "basing [its] guidance on the business conditions [it sees for itself] and [its] customers currently, with the macro economy, which remains sluggish, and customers who remain cautious," per a transcript. Lerman told The Exchange that it was not clear when the world would open — something that matters for Yext's location-focused products — so the company was guiding for the year as if nothing would change. Wall Street didn't love it, but if the economy improves Yext won't have high hurdles to jump over. This is one tack that a company can take when it talks guidance. Smartsheet took a slightly different approach, saying in its earnings call that its "fiscal year ’22 guidance contemplates a gradual improvement in the macro environment in the second half of the year." Mader said in an interview that his company wasn't hiring economists, but was instead simply listening to what others were saying. He also said that the macro climate matters more in saturated markets, which he doesn't think that Smartsheet is in; so, its results should be more impacted by things more like "the secular shift to the cloud and digital transformation," to quote its earnings call. What the economy will do this year matters quite a lot for startups. An improving economy could boost interest rates, making money a bit more expensive and bonds more attractive. Valuations could see modest downward pressure in that case. And venture capital could slow fractionally. But with Yext forecasting as if it was facing a flat road and Smartsheet only expecting things to pick up pace from Q3 on, it's likely that what we have now is mostly what we'll get. And things are pretty damn good for startups and late-stage liquidity at the moment. So, smooth sailing ahead for startup-land? At least as far as our current perspective can discern. We still have a grip of notes from Splunk CEO Douglas Merritt on how to take an old-school software company and turn it into a cloud-first company, and Jamf CEO Dean Hager about packaging discrete software products. More to come from them in fits. |
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