AWS will buy a SaaS company, and other 2022 enterprise predictions

By Walter Thompson and Ram Iyer

Tuesday, January 04, 2022

Welcome to TechCrunch+ Tuesday

Image Credits: Tyler E Nixon / Getty Images

Happy new year!

As is our custom, you’ll see quite a few TechCrunch+ articles in the coming days that share predictions for 2022.

Upcoming topics include fintech, crypto/blockchain and growth marketing, but yesterday, TechCrunch reporter Ron Miller shared his predictions for enterprise companies this year.

As he noted, making enterprise forecasts is tricky: In 2021, who expected Salesforce to snap up Slack for almost $28B, or that Jeff Bezos would hand over the reins of Amazon to Andy Jassy?

“I sure didn't see that coming, and I'm betting most people didn't,” wrote Ron. “The tech world moves so quickly, it's often hard to keep up.”

With “the usual caveats,” his prognostications encompass ongoing supply chain issues, the impacts of increased regulatory oversight in Europe and the U.S., and his thoughts on a M&A market where table stakes are measured in the tens of billions.

His boldest, spiciest take?

Salesforce… was quiet in 2021, busy closing the Slack deal. It won't be too unrealistic to expect something in 2022. Maybe something SaaS-y like Zoom, Box or Dropbox. Maybe Benioff finally gets Twitter, a company he desperately wanted in 2016, as Casey Newton suggested in The Platformer this week.

Thanks very much for reading,

Walter Thompson
Senior Editor, TechCrunch+
@yourprotagonist

Justworks targets multibillion-dollar valuation in upcoming IPO image

Image Credits: Nigel Sussman

Justworks, an SMB-focused HR software company, released an updated S-1A filing today, which Alex Wilhelm dissected in this morning’s edition of The Exchange.

“For those of you in search of a single number, using a simple share count, Justworks could be worth more than $2 billion at the top end of its current range,” says Alex.

Your mom owns Web 2.0

Image Credits: BlackJack3D / Getty Images

If you add a sizzling hot take to Twitter beef, you might end up with some delicious news analysis.

Block CEO and Bitcoin fan Jack Dorsey recently tweeted that despite steadfast claims from investors, “you don’t own ‘web3.'”

In reality, “the VCs and their LPs do,” wrote Dorsey. “It will never escape their incentives. It's ultimately a centralized entity with a different label.”

In a subtweet, Chris Dixon, general partner at a16z, shared charts depicting how much financial holding companies own of Web 2.0 companies like Airbnb, Meta and Block.

“But Vanguard and Fidelity don't really own that stock,” writes Alex Wilhelm. “I know that because I do.”

In reality, control of Web 2.0 is “pretty decentralized,” because shares are held widely by external investors like pension and index funds.

“Yes, your mom owns Web 2.0. At least part of it.”

When fundraising, New Zealand startup founders should play the "Kiwi card" image

Image Credits: Jami Tarris / Getty Images

In the final article in a series about New Zealand, Rebecca Bellan spoke to four stakeholders to learn more about how foreign investment and a fund of funds program are juicing up the nation's burgeoning startup ecosystem:

Peter Beck, CEO/CTO Rocket Lab
Cecilia Robinson, founder and co-CEO, Tend Health
Phoebe Harrop, principal, Blackbird Ventures
Robbie Paul, CEO, Icehouse Ventures

"While starting on a rock at the bottom of the world comes with challenges, there are plenty of advantages, too," said Paul, who advises native founders to "play the Kiwi card."

Almost one of every five New Zealanders lives abroad, and that diaspora has helped the nation build a great deal of international goodwill.

"It's an easy conversation starter and chances are most interesting people offshore have some sort of affinity or connection to New Zealand," Paul said.

The coming reckoning: Showing ROI from threat intelligence image

Image Credits: Vladimir Godnik / Getty Images

In the fast-evolving world of cybersecurity, being proactive can make or break companies and brands.

But threat intelligence teams are still siloed and focus mostly on funneling data to security operation centers instead of communicating important information to other parts of the business.

This tendency, writes Chris Jacob, global vice president of Threat Intelligence Engineers at ThreatQuotient, forces CISOs to justify the cost of threat intelligence teams, despite their importance to the modern security framework.

Jacob shares three key recommendations CISOs can implement to become more effective advocates:

Think of threat intelligence as providers of a product
Prioritize integration
Formalize executive reporting

3 views: Pay attention to these startup theses in 2022 image

Image Credits: Javier Zayas Photography / Getty Images

Startup theses are malleable and prone to evolution, and as the market matures and evolves, it’s going to be harder than ever to predict what will work in the coming years.

Natasha Mascarenhas, Alex Wilhelm and Anna Heim lay down their views on the major trends they expect to see in 2022 and beyond:

Alex: 2022 is when open source will become the de facto startup model
Natasha: Hybridize. Everything.
Anna: A majority of SaaS companies will adopt usage-based pricing in 2022

Why Delivery Hero is acquiring a majority stake in Spanish delivery company Glovo image

Image Credits: Nigel Sussman

M&A is arguably one of the best and most efficient ways to significantly scale a business, and Delivery Hero took that path last week with its deal to acquire Spanish delivery startup Glovo.

In an in-depth analysis of the deal, Alex Wilhelm explores how acquiring Glovo is more about growing its share of the food delivery market for Delivery Hero.

“Glovo’s focus beyond restaurants put it in line with a very hot trend: quick commerce, or q-commerce. Its rise is exemplified by companies such as Zapp and Gopuff, and Delivery Hero took notice.”

“That the last page was the two companies deciding to just team up is perhaps less of a twist ending than we thought at first blush.”