Morning Jolt: Are Republican Candidates Taking the Red Wave for Granted?

On the menu today: Democrats are claiming that the red wave is canceled, and are even whispering that they have a shot of keeping control of the House of Representatives. You can over-interpret a late-August special House election or two, but there are definite signs that Republicans' momentum has slowed — or maybe even stalled. The big question now is: How well can this crop of GOP candidates perform if they don't have a strong wind at their backs?

Stay Alert, Republicans

Yes, you can over-interpret a special-election result. When you hold an election on a day besides the first Tuesday in November, turnout is usually significantly lower. Only the diehards are interested, the process of selecting candidates is dependent upon a smaller group of party regulars, and odd things can happen as a result.

In special elections, parties can win seats that they would never win under normal circumstances. Back in 2010, Republican Charles Djou won a seat in an exceptionally Democratic-leaning district in Hawaii, in part because it was an unusual three-way race. Back in 2011, Republican Bob Turner won Anthony Weiner's district ...

Morning-Jolt.png
WITH JIM GERAGHTY August 26 2022
Morning-Jolt-center.png
WITH JIM GERAGHTY August 26 2022
hero

Are Republican Candidates Taking the Red Wave for Granted?

On the menu today: Democrats are claiming that the red wave is canceled, and are even whispering that they have a shot of keeping control of the House of Representatives. You can over-interpret a late-August special House election or two, but there are definite signs that Republicans' momentum has slowed — or maybe even stalled. The big question now is: How well can this crop of GOP candidates perform if they don't have a strong wind at their backs?

Stay Alert, Republicans

Yes, you can over-interpret a special-election result. When you hold an election on a day besides the first Tuesday in November, turnout is usually significantly lower. Only the diehards are interested, the process of selecting candidates is dependent upon a smaller group of party regulars, and odd things can happen as a result.

In special elections, parties can win seats that they would never win under normal circumstances. Back in 2010, Republican Charles Djou won a seat in an exceptionally Democratic-leaning district in Hawaii, in part because it was an unusual three-way race. Back in 2011, Republican Bob Turner won Anthony Weiner's district ...   READ MORE

spacer

ADVERTISEMENT

Trending on National Review

1. The Fauci Effect

2. Canceling Thomas Jefferson

3. Resnais's Masterpiece La Guerre est finie

Top Stories

Rich Lowry

Biden's Student-Debt Debacle

Biden's debt-cancellation program is a debacle at every level and isn't the product of a messy congressional ...

Ben Lieberman

The Skyrocketing Cost of Staying Cool This Summer — and Future Ones

EPA and, if the Senate approves, U.N. regulations are increasing the costs of refrigerants used in air ...

NEWS

'Cynical Ploy': Biden Student-Debt 'Forgiveness' on Shaky Legal Ground, Experts Say

While there’s no clear legal justification for the order, opponents of it may have trouble finding a group ...

NEWS

White House Tries to Shame GOP Student-Debt Critics for Accepting Pandemic Loan Relief

The White House implied that the lawmakers were hypocrites for accepting PPP loan forgiveness while criticizing ...

ADVERTISEMENT

App_FB_and_Newsletter_Ad_nonmem.png

PODCASTS

PHOTOS

VIDEO

NRPLUS ARTICLES

ADVERTISEMENT

nri_2022_wfb_dinnner.png

ADVERTISEMENT

 

 
 
 
 
Learn more about RevenueStripe...
national review

Follow Us & Share

19 West 44th Street, Suite 1701, New York, NY, 10036, USA
Your Preferences | Unsubscribe | Privacy
View this e-mail in your browser.

Commentaires

Posts les plus consultés de ce blog

Chris Ramsey can take the heat, but what would relegation for QPR mean for black managers in the Premier League?

'Game of Thrones' gave fans of Missandei and Grey Worm something to love tonight