No final victories... no final defeats.

America is gaining momentum… but then again, so is a plane going into a nose dive. 

Dear NR Reader, The midterm elections have come and gone – well, they're still counting the votes in a few places – but it seems clear that 2022 did not quite bring the stern rebuke of President Biden and Democrats that they had so shamelessly earned. You could say that as 2023 approaches, America is gaining momentum… but then again, so is a plane going into a nose dive.  But there are no final victories in politics, and the work is never done. In January, a slew of new Republicans will take the oath of office, and are likely to begin another era of divided government, with this one likely to be even more bellicose than its predecessors. At some point in early 2023, expect to see the first big showdown between the Biden team and Congressional Republicans. Congress will need to raise America's debt ceiling, which is set at "merely" $31.4 trillion, and right now the total outstanding U.S. debt is just a bit past $31.2 trillion. Republicans don't like raising the debt ceiling and will attempt to extract some policy concessions from the Biden administration; meanwhile Biden and his team will argue that Republicans are gambling with fiscal ruin by not raising the debt ceiling with no strings attached. (If this all sounds familiar, it's because we went through these fights in 2011 and 2013. Back then, the Obama administration insisted there was no way the U.S. Treasury could prioritize the payment of interest on the debt and could use contingency measures – and, it turns out, was lying about it, as NATIONAL REVIEW's Veronique de Rugy revealed.)    One complicating factor to the fight, and both parties' agendas, is the high likelihood of the U.S. experiencing an indisputable, un-spinnable recession in the coming year – in fact Bloomberg analysts declared last month that there is a 100 percent chance of a recession in 2023. Hopefully, you've been reading Kevin Hassett, the chairman of then- President Trump's Council of Economic Advisers from 2017 to 2019. Kevin's been ahead of the curve on all of this, particularly on inflation, supply chain woes, and worker shortages. Back in autumn 2021, I wrote that the usually cheerful Hassett was offering "an economic assessment that was darker than Rembrandt's Night Watch viewed through sunglasses at midnight during a power outage." A big question on voters' minds, after enduring more than a year of exceptionally high inflation, is what Washington can and do to improve a grim economic picture.   If you find yourself wondering the same, I invite you to join our ranks with NRPLUS, where you will receive unlimited digital access to NATIONAL REVIEW's acerbic analysis, written by some of the brightest minds in conservatism. With our inflation-proof discount of 60% off, you can become a member today for less than $0.80 cents a week.  SIGN UP TODAY That access will be crucial in the year ahead as 2023 marks the first full year without Roe v. Wade in place, and new Republican governors and state legislative majorities will take on the politically fraught responsibility of crafting new state laws on abortion. In some places like Arizona, new restrictions on abortion will take effect on January 1; in other places like Virginia, new bans will be on the state legislative agenda. The Hobbs decision came down in June, but post-Roe reality will really take effect in the year to come, and NR will keep a sharp eye on those consequential battles. Although with Stacey Abrams defeated in her bid to be Georgia's governor again, perhaps we can permanently retire her bizarre argument that abortion is the solution to high inflation rates.    And if history is any guide, the first battles of the 2024 presidential election will kick off in the coming year — perhaps really early in the year. (In 2007, nine Democrats had announced their exploratory committees by the end of February, including Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Joe Biden). We all know former president Donald Trump is extremely likely to run for president again, and Florida governor Ron DeSantis is widely expected to run as well. And then there's a whole slew of big names in the "maybe" pile — former vice president Mike Pence, former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, and former governor and United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, among others. NRPLUS gets you past our paywall, which means you can enjoy unfettered access to a volcanic eruption of reactions and keen analysis on the coming horserace from the likes of Rich Lowry, Charles C.W. Cooke, and of course – yours truly.    Finally, 2022 was not a quiet or stable year beyond our borders, and 2023 isn't looking like it will be smooth sailing, either. Europe is bracing for a long, cold winter without Russian energy supplies. Xi Jinping just consolidated even more power over the Chinese state in Beijing, and the discussion about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan is getting unnervingly loud. The new Republican Congress is expected to intensify investigations into a lot of topics, but none interest me more than the origin of the Covid-19 pandemic and the possibility — ahem, really strong possibility — of the entire global disaster all tracing back to a leak or accident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.    Add it all up, and we live in tumultuous times. If you find NATIONAL REVIEW's reporting, analysis, essays, criticism, and humor informative, enlightening, clarifying, and thought-provoking — I'd encourage you to consider an NRPLUS membership. Expanded access is just the beginning. NRPLUS entitles you to a host of other benefits, too; everything from monthly calls with NR writers and conservative leaders to commenting privileges on the site and entry into our members-only Facebook group. With 60% off, there's never been a better time to give it a try.  I hope you choose to join us — because the midterms may be over, but the news never stops.   Sincerely yours,   Jim Geraghty Senior Political Correspondent NATIONAL REVIEW SIGN UP TODAY No longer wish to receive our notifications? Adjust your preferences. No risk, money-back guarantee.  Offer expires 11/30/2022, 11:59 PM. E.T. Your payment method will automatically be charged for one year of NRPLUS Digital access. 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