Rocket Report: SpaceX likely to see surge in revenue, Soyuz rescue mission to launch this evening

Welcome to the Rocket Report. This is edition 5.27 of the newsletter. The big news this week is that Relativity Space got its launch license for a debut flight from Cape Canaveral in Florida. In less than two weeks, I'm excited to see how far this methalox rocket makes it on its first foray off the planet. As always I appreciate your interest, and encourage your submissions for story ideas. If this email was forwarded to you, you can subscribe to this newsletter here.

RocketReport 2.23.2023

Next three launches

Feb. 24: Soyuz 2.1 | Soyuz MS-23 | Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan | 00:24 UTC

Feb. 26: Falcon 9 | Starlink 6-1 | Cape Canaveral, Fla. | 18:12 UTC

Feb. 27: Falcon 9 | Crew-6 | Kennedy Space Center, Fla. | 06:45 UTC

This week in lift

On February 26, 1998, a Pegasus rocket launched BATSAT into low-Earth orbit for Teledesic, a satellite communications venture backed by Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates and Craig McCaw, among others. The demonstration satellite was successful, but the commercial venture was not as Teledesic joined Iridium and Globalstar as early failures.

Small Lift Rockets

Terran 1 gets a launch date. On Wednesday Relativity Space announced that it had secured a launch license from the Federal Aviation Administration for the debut launch of its Terran 1 rocket. The mission, called "GLHF" or Good Luck, Have Fun, will take flight from Launch Complex 16 in Cape Canaveral, Florida. The launch window opens at 1 pm ET (18:00 UTC) on March 8, 2023. Because this is a test flight, the mission will not include a customer payload. It will be streamed live.

Print your way to space ... Interestingly, Relativity Space has decided to forego a first-stage hot-fire test of the rocket on the launch pad. The FAA license included a provision for such a test. However, company officials said they have lowered the risks during launch through other hot-firings of the launch system. Further tests of the rocket may cause wear and tear, the company said, and that had to be balanced against any need to collect more data. This is a big mission, as the Terran 1 has a chance to be the first methane-fueled rocket to reach orbit and consists of about 85 percent additively manufactured parts. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

New Mexico continues investing in Spaceport America. The New Mexico Spaceport Authority currently operates from a Las Cruces-based office building about an hour's drive away from Spaceport America, the home of Virgin Galactic's suborbital space tourism business. Now, the publicly funded spaceport authority wants to be closer to the action and plans to construct a 30,000-square-foot facility on site, Parabolic Arc reports. The Spaceport Technology and Reception Center's mission "will be to become the welcoming face to staff, visitors, and prospective customers visiting or working at Spaceport America," according to a request for proposals.

It's a been a long road ... In December 2005, New Mexico agreed to spend up to $200 million to construct a custom-built spaceport where Richard Branson's space company would be the anchor tenant. After the spaceport's construction, the authority continues to cost the state millions of dollars annually because it is not generating enough revenue to cover its budget. This is largely because Virgin Galactic has yet to fly a single paying customer into space. This may finally change later this year if Virgin Galactic begins commercial service with its VSS Unity vehicle. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Medium Lift Rockets

SpaceX may see a significant increase in 2023 revenue. Payload's Mo Islam has released his projection for SpaceX's revenue in 2023 and predicts the company will draw in $11.5 billion this year. If true, this would represent a substantial leap from his predicted revenue for 2022 of $4.6 billion. It is important to state up front, of course, that the privately held company's revenues are not something that is publicly available. So these are educated guesses. All the same, this would be a sizable leap in revenue.

Is SpaceX now a satellite company first? ... As part of these projections, Islam expects 87 orbital launches in 2023 for SpaceX, with a sizable jump in revenue from commercial Falcon 9 and government Falcon Heavy missions. Revenue from Starlink is also expected to grow substantially, from $1.9 billion last year to $5.4 billion in 2023. In other words, based on revenue, SpaceX is now more a satellite company than a launch company. "Ultimately, we recognize predicting SpaceX's revenue is extremely challenging, given the multitude of variables we've laid out here," Islam concludes. "In fact, we know that even some investors in SpaceX don't have accurate data around historical financials or projections." It would also be fascinating to know SpaceX's expenses. (submitted by brianrhurley)

Soyuz rescue mission ready for launch. The main Russian space corporation, Roscosmos, is set to conduct an uncrewed flight of a Soyuz spacecraft to the International Space Station as part of a plan to replace the stricken Soyuz MS-22 vehicle, NASASpaceflight.com reports. The MS-23 mission will launch atop a Soyuz-2.1a rocket from Site 31/6 at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan no earlier than Friday, February 24, at 00:24 UTC.

Bringing some spare cargo ... The primary aim of the Soyuz MS-23 mission is to replace the existing Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft, which sprang a coolant leak in its thermal management system while docked to the Russian segment of the International Space Station in December. Since Soyuz MS-23 will fly without crew on board, much like a Progress mission, the spacecraft will conduct its mission autonomously until its docking with the ISS. Roscosmos will use the opportunity to deliver 429 kg of equipment and supplies to the station's crew.

Japan now targeting March 10 for H3 debut. The debut launch of the H3 rocket was aborted last week after a problem in the electrical system that supplies power to the main engine was detected, The Japan News reports. The Japanese space agency, JAXA, reported its findings to an expert panel of the Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology Ministry on Wednesday. JAXA funded development of the rocket, which was designed and manufactured by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

The rocket itself is fine ... The H3 rocket's scheduled launch from the Tanegashima Space Center in Kagoshima Prefecture on the morning of February 17 was canceled moments before liftoff. A control unit detected an anomaly after the main engine ignited, so ignition signals were not sent to the booster rockets. JAXA has confirmed there was no damage to the rocket's fuselage or the government's Daichi-3 Earth observation satellite that was on board. JAXA now aims to launch its new rocket during a window that runs through March 10. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Crew-6 launch slips a day. After a lengthy flight readiness review on Tuesday, NASA and SpaceX decided to delay the liftoff of the Crew-6 mission to the International Space Station to Monday, February 27 at 1:45 am ET (06:45 UTC). The extra day will allow launch teams to work through a few minor issues with Endeavour and the Falcon 9, Space.com reports. Team members want to further analyze the thermal performance of the "pod panels" that cover Endeavour's exterior, said Steve Stich, manager of NASA's Commercial Crew Program.

Oh those pressure vessels ... They also want to look at the composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) in the Falcon 9, bottles of helium that reside in the rocket's liquid-oxygen tank. "We have... some testing and analysis to go to make sure that those are good for flight," Stich said of the COPV work during Tuesday's news briefing. NASA and SpaceX expect Crew Dragon Endeavour and its Falcon 9 rocket ride to be cleared for liftoff when this upcoming work is complete. (submitted by Ken the Bin)

Texas to make major investment in space. As part of the state's biennial budget process, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has called on the state legislature to provide $350 million to create and fund a Texas Space Commission for the next two years, Ars reports. "Further investment will cement Texas as the preeminent location for innovation and development in this rapidly growing industry," Abbott said. "Due to increased competition from other states and internationally, further planning and coordination is needed to keep Texas at the cutting edge." The measure is expected to pass.

SpaceX, Blue Origin to get seats ... The proposed commission would "focus on policy and arranging statewide strategy by monitoring local, state, and federal policies and opportunities and establishing an economic ecosystem for Texas' space enterprises." It would include 15 members, including those appointed by political officials, as well as an appointee each from SpaceX and Blue Origin. Both of these companies have a sizable presence in the state with spaceports and large workforces, each dating back nearly two decades.

Luna 25 mission launch targeted for July. Russia plans to launch its first lunar space mission in modern times on July 13, the Anadolu Agency website reports. "The launch of the Luna-25 spacecraft is scheduled for 13.07.2023, taking into account the astronomical 'window' in 2023," Roscosmos said in a statement. The spacecraft will launch on a Soyuz rocket from the Vostochny Cosmodrome.

A long wait for a lunar mission ... Luna 25 is a lander, with a primary mission of proving out the technology for a soft landing on the Moon. It will carry about 30 kg of payload to the Moon's surface. This is a relatively modest ambition, but Luna 25 is nonetheless a significant mission for the country—it is the first domestically produced lunar spacecraft in post-Soviet Russia. It is intended to land in a small crater not all that far from the South Pole of the Moon. (submitted by BH)

Heavy Lift Rockets

NASA advisers have concerns about SLS launch rate. The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel has said it is worried about the agency's safety culture and workforce as it prepares for the first crewed Artemis flight, Space News reports. "The Panel is concerned that NASA's concerted attention to a healthy safety culture may have diminished, leaving NASA vulnerable to the same flaws that contributed to previous failures. This concern was heightened by the circumstances surrounding NASA's decision to scrub the Artemis I launch in early September," it stated.

An 'irregular' cadence ... That was a reference to a problem during the second attempt to launch the Artemis 1 mission September 3, believed to be due to human error. NASA officials said at the time that an "inadvertent overpressurization" of a liquid hydrogen line damaged a seal, causing a large leak of liquid hydrogen that scrubbed the launch. The panel also noted that the "irregular cadence" of Artemis missions, and the changing nature of each mission, will pose a challenge even for an experienced workforce. "In every respect, each Artemis mission will be properly characterized as a test mission," it stated. "Every Artemis mission will be wholly unique for the foreseeable future." (submitted by Ken the Bin)