☕️ Musk has a feeling

Who is right about the recession?
June 04, 2022 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

Morning Brew

Battleface

Good morning. In our exuberance over the brilliant play of Polish tennis superstar Iga Swiatek, we mistakenly wrote yesterday that, if she wins the French Open final this morning, she'll tie Venus Williams for the longest winning streak in WTA history at 35 matches.

But as many of you pointed out, that'd just be the longest winning streak this century, because who could forget Martina Navratilova? (Us, apparently.) Here are the actual longest WTA winning streaks ever:

  • Navratilova: 74 straight wins in 1984
  • Steffi Graf: 66 in 1989–90
  • Navratilova (again): 58 in 1986–87

Swiatek will take on American teenager Coco Gauff in the final today at 9am ET.

Neal Freyman, Matty Merritt, Jamie Wilde

MARKETS

Nasdaq

12,012.73

S&P

4,108.54

Dow

32,899.70

10-Year

2.940%

Bitcoin

$29,708.38

Tesla

$703.55

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 11:00pm ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: With the Fed's rate hikes lurking like an anonymous animal in a Google Doc, stocks fell yesterday to close lower for the week. Tesla shares also tumbled after CEO Elon Musk reportedly sent some gloomy emails to staff (more on that in a sec).

ECONOMY

Who's right about the recession: CEOs or the data?

Elon Musk attends The 2022 Met Gala Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images for The Met Museum/Vogue

You know when your weather app shows it's raining but if you look out the window, the sun is shining? That's what it's like trying to decode the US economy right now. While some leading CEOs are sounding the alarm on a recession, the actual economic data isn't saying the same thing.

Let's start with CEOs—specifically the most (in)famous one, Elon Musk. He told Tesla execs in a Thursday email that he had a "super bad feeling" about the economy and to "pause all hiring worldwide," according to Reuters. In a separate email, he announced to employees that Tesla will be laying off 10% of salaried employees.

Musk is one of several prominent execs who has recently said that the fight against inflation + the war in Ukraine are about to send the economy into the Bad Place.

  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned people this week to "brace yourself" because a "hurricane" is about to rock the economy.
  • Last month, Snap boss Evan Spiegel wrote that the "macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated," which resulted in a $135 billion wipeout across social media stocks.

But these doomsday predictions have yet to show up in the data

If a recession is barreling toward us, then the May jobs report released yesterday didn't get the memo. It showed the US economy added a meaty 390,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate held steady at a super low 3.6%. May's jobs growth is the weakest pace of hiring in more than a year, but it's still a number that economists are pumped about given all the lurking threats.

In more good news, wage growth fell to 5.2% in May from 5.5% in April. While your bank account may not like the sound of that, it's actually a hopeful sign that a) the crippling labor shortage is easing up and b) inflation is starting to tick down across the economy.—NF

        

TOGETHER WITH BATTLEFACE

You deserve some (zero-stress, everything's-gonna-be-perfect) time off

Battleface

Your PTO is approved, you're finalizing your itinerary, and you're rea-dyyyy for that long-overdue vacation.

You've planned so well that it's only logical to account for alllll the things you didn't plan for, too. You might be thinking, "That terrible mishap would never happen to me." Well, for many of us at the Brew, we learned the hard way that travel doesn't always go according to plan.

To help you learn from our mistakes, we teamed up with battleface to break down what can go wrong—and how travel insurance can protect your precious vacay.

battleface offers customized travel insurance plans to safeguard your getaways from any what-ifs. Trip cancellations? Check. Luggage with all those cute 'fits goes MIA? Check. Medical emergency? Major check.

Now check out our article so you can plan for the unexpected and fully enjoy that (zero-stress, everything's-gonna-be-perfect) time off.

WORLD

Tour de headlines

David McCormick Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

David McCormick concedes defeat. The former CEO of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates conceded the Republican Senate primary race for Pennsylvania, meaning that Trump-backed celebrity heart surgeon Dr. Mehmet Oz will be the GOP nominee. Oz will face Democrat John Fetterman in what will be one of the most closely watched Senate races this fall.

Taser maker says it wants to help stop school shootings. Axon, the company behind Tasers, announced plans to build a stun gun-equipped drone to combat mass shootings, calling political efforts ineffective. There's just one problem: The company's own ethics board said hours after the announcement that it had voted against the idea of putting drones in classrooms.

🪙 All my coins gone. People lost more than $1 billion in crypto scams last year, almost 60x more than in 2018, per a new FTC report. The most popular category of scam was fake investments, while romance scams came in at No. 2. Gotta tell our Swiss internet boyfriend about this next time we send him some dogecoin.

INTERNATIONAL

The Ukraine War: 100 days in and (probably) a lot more to go

Ukrainian holding a flag on top of a tank Alexey Furman/Getty Images

Yesterday marked 100 days since Russia invaded Ukraine in a brazen move that has shaken up the post-Cold War geopolitical order, caused economic hardships all over the globe, and displaced millions of people from their homes.

So where do we stand? Before it launched its invasion, Russia controlled 7% of Ukraine—including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and parts of the eastern Donbas region. On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia has increased its territorial control to 20%.

  • Zelensky said this week that 60–100 Ukrainian soldiers are dying every day in the conflict, in addition to the tens of thousands of civilians who have been killed since Feb. 24, per Ukrainian estimates.
  • 6.8 million people have left Ukraine and 7.1 million have been displaced from their homes but remain in the country.

Russian forces have also suffered severe losses due to well-publicized mishaps and fiercer than expected Ukrainian resistance. But, despite failing in its initial aims to topple the Ukrainian government, Russia appears set on defending the territory it has already seized. And with Zelensky vowing to keep up the fight, this war could drag on for a while, experts say.

Bottom line: Ukraine's first lady Olena Zelenska told ABC News on Thursday that Americans should "not get used to this war." But it appears to be fading from many Americans' radars: Social media interactions on news articles about Ukraine have decreased from 109 million in the first week of the war to 4.8 million last week, per Axios.—JW

        

FOOD & BEV

Don't talk to me until I've had my morning life extender

Agent Dale Cooper drinking coffee in Twin Peaks. Twin Peaks/ABC

New research suggests celebs injecting serums to live longer are wasting their time.

A study published this week in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine found that people who drink 1.5 to 3.5 cups of coffee a day (even if they add a little bit of sugar to it!) had a lower mortality rate than people who didn't drink any coffee. The researchers, who studied 171,000 people in the UK over a seven-year period, found that coffee drinkers were 30% less likely to die during the study period than the coffee-less.

But it doesn't conclusively prove that coffee itself is the panacea:

  • Dr. Christina Wee, an associate professor at Harvard Medical School and the deputy editor of the journal, told the NYT that other characteristics of coffee drinkers could be contributing to their lower mortality rate, such as diet and exercise.
  • Plus, the benefits sputtered out like a hand-me-down Mr. Coffee after about 4.5  cups.

Despite the unknowns, Wee said, "It's huge. There are very few things that reduce your mortality by 30%."

Zoom out: It's unclear what about your *looks directly at camera* morning brew is so powerful. Some scientists point to the fact that coffee beans contain anti-inflammatory antioxidants that can help with heart health.—MM

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Gallup poll on same sex marriage Gallup

Stat: New Gallup data shows that a record 71% of Americans say they support legal same-sex marriage. In 1996, when Gallup first polled about the issue, just 27% did.

Quote: "Lots of luck on his trip to the moon."

President Biden probably can't wait for the day when Elon Musk ships off to space. When asked about the mogul's sour feelings on the economy, President Biden decided not to address it and went after Musk instead. Musk clapped back by tweeting a link to an article outlining NASA's contract with SpaceX to send astronauts to the moon. The caption: "Thanks Mr President!"

Look: A gallery of images from 100 days of fighting in Ukraine. (Associated Press)

CARTOON

Saturday sketch

Snacks: They are in the office...why aren't you? Max Knoblauch

        

BREW'S BETS

Weekend conversation starters:

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What your chair says about you: Check out the horseshoe theory of chair design and function.

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WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Dave Clark, the head of Amazon's consumer business, is resigning after 23 years at the company.
  • Confirmed monkeypox cases in the US have climbed to 21, more than double the count from last week.
  • Gen Z wants retailers to help workers access abortions, according to a Retail Brew survey.
  • Turkey's inflation surged 73.5% annually in May, its fastest pace since 1998.
  • A pint of beer in the UK costs 70% more now than during the 2008 financial crisis, reaching £8 ($10) a pint in some pubs.

FROM THE CREW

The one mousepad your desk needs

An image of Excel mousepads

Our secret spreadsheet sauce? Look no further. Excel Dictionary's Shortcut Guide Mousepad is available in Mac and PC styles. Get yours now to upgrade your Excel proficiency to expert status.

GAMES

Brew crossword

Brew Crossword promo image

Today's crossword is called "Movie themes." Don't think we need to say anything more. Play it here.

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Written by Neal Freyman, Jamie Wilde, and Matty Merritt

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