President Joe Biden continues to lose ground to Donald Trump and is now trailing the former president 45-43 in a head-to-head matchup going into the final year of his first term in the White House.
Biden’s favorability has dropped precipitously since the early summer, with nearly 60 percent of respondents now disapproving of his performance, according to a new poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted by WPA Intelligence and obtained by National Review. While Biden led Trump by 15 points in terms of favorability in May, today, the two candidates have nearly identical ratings. Republicans trailed Democrats by 2 points on a generic ballot in May but now lead by 1 point.
Growing concerns over the president’s age and vitality continue to plague the Biden campaign: Nearly two-thirds (60 percent) of respondents do not believe Biden would be able to complete a second term in the White House if reelected.
"President Biden may be having a 'Blue Christmas' this year given his worsening electoral prospects heading into 2024,” WPA Intelligence executive Amanda Iovino told National Review. “His once 7-point lead over former president Trump in May is now a 2-point deficit as his favorability ratings have sunk to Trump's levels.”
Hampering Biden’s reelection campaign is his handling of the southern border crisis, government spending, inflation, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas War, with nearly two-thirds of respondents disapproving of the president’s handling of each of those issues. Consequently, independents have swung notably in favor of Trump in recent months, handing him a 7-point edge over Biden.
However, it’s not all bad for the Democratic hopeful. While the former president has retained the support of 91 percent of his 2020 followers, Trump has only managed to persuade 3 percent of Biden voters to join him. Moreover, Trump’s voting base, according to WPA Intelligence, is notably less reliable on Election Day than the bulk of Biden supporters.
“The silver lining for Democrats is two-fold: Biden continues leading Trump among the voters with the most consistent voting records, and Biden voters do not appear to be flipping to Trump,” Iovino explained to NR. “Rather, a percentage of them are now telling pollsters they are undecided. This may all change over the next 11 months, of course, and Trump still faces major legal and electoral hurdles, but President Biden is an especially vulnerable and unpopular incumbent.”
The latest poll comports with a recent Morning Consult study published in mid December showing President Biden losing to Trump in head-to-head matchups in all seven major swing states. Trump maintained a strong lead over Biden in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina. Notably, Trump's lead over Biden fell outside the survey’s margin of error in only two states: Georgia (6 points) and North Carolina (9 points).
The poll was conducted from December 15-17 via an online portal and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
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