Special Capital Dispatch: The NDP-Liberal deal is done, what now?

Here's what you need to know about what the political breakup means for the return to Parliament and the looming byelections.

September 5, 2024

Singh just pulled the plug on NDP-Liberal pact with PM Trudeau, what now? Hello Capital Dispatch subscribers and welcome to this special edition of the newsletter.  While I wasn't set to be in your inboxes until the House of Commons resumed later this month, Jagmeet Singh's politically-seismic declaration that he's done propping up Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberal government is too big of news to not dig into. Beyond the push alerts and immediate political reaction, keep reading and you'll learn about what this all means for both the return to Parliament and the looming byelections, plus what we know so far about the likelihood of an early federal election.    The day that was and what happens now  After a few hours of flurried speculation early Wednesday, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh took to social media to declare that he has "ripped up" the supply-and-confidence agreement that was helping keep Trudeau's Liberals in power.  In pulling his party out of the deal, Singh said Trudeau didn't deserve another chance from Canadians and was "too weak" to fight for the middle class and stop Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's "plans to cut." Designed to inject stability in exchange for policy progress when it was inked back in 2022, the two-party pact was set to expire in June 2025, when the House of Commons is to wrap ahead of the next fixed-date election. But in taking that certainty off the table, the Liberals will once again have to look for political support on a case-by-case basis on key votes, in order to stay afloat and stave off a potential election.  Reacting to the news – which he was only informed of shortly before Singh went public – the prime minister said he's "not focused on politics." He also expressed hope that the election won't come early, and that the NDP still help him cement the policies they've worked to advance.  For more on what the Liberal-NDP deal accomplished in the years it was in effect, my colleague Spencer Van Dyk dove into the document to sift out what was done, and what wasn't.   "I think the NDP is going to have to make decisions about whether or not they want to stand with Pierre Poilievre," Trudeau said. "I certainly hope that the NDP will stay true to its fundamental values." According to NDP sources speaking on background, Singh and his caucus arrived at a consensus they would get out of the deal earlier in the summer – and made the video announcing it – before Poilievre came out last week to push Singh to pull out of the agreement.   Poilievre's pitch was for Singh to side with the Conservatives when MPs return to Ottawa and try to force an early election this fall, rather than wait until the fixed election date of October 2025. Reacting to the Liberal-NDP breakup, Poilievre said it's time for Singh to put his votes where his messaging is. "My message to sellout Singh is this: if you're serious about ending your costly carbon tax coalition with Trudeau, then commit today to voting for a carbon tax election at the earliest confidence vote in the House of Commons," he said.  So, the short answer to everyone's main question, 'does this mean an early election?' is … maybe.  Of course, the end of the deal doesn't automatically trigger any formal process. Trudeau continues to maintain the confidence of the House of Commons – the key metric for any minority government – but going forward, the predictability the Liberal-NDP deal provided in seeing him maintain it, is gone.   Sources also said that the oversight group meetings meant to assess ongoing progress of the agreement have not been productive for months, citing animosity between the PMO and senior New Democrats. Though, asked on CTV News Channel's Power Play on Wednesday whether any NDP concerns were conveyed to her over the summer, Government House Leader Karina Gould said "no." Going forward, Gould said that while it depends on "how things play out," past minority Parliaments have existed without these kinds of agreements. "My job now as House leader is to work with the opposition parties," Gould said. "That could be the NDP on some things. It could be the Bloc on some things. It might even be the Conservatives on other things." However, pollster Nik Nanos noted that when you consider the election campaign-style way Singh dropped this news, and the tone of Trudeau and Poilievre's responses, it sounds "like there's a full on election right now."   "Every single debate, comment, motion, bill in the House of Commons will now be seen through the lens of a potential election that is going to be closer today than it was yesterday," he said.

Three threads to follow The September byelections We know that the Sept. 16 federal byelections – one in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, Que. to fill former Liberal MP David Lametti's seat, and the other in Elmwood–Transcona, Man. to replace former NDP MP Daniel Blaikie – loomed over Singh's decision.  NDP sources told CTV News' Chief Political Correspondent Vassy Kapelos that what campaigners were hearing while door-knocking affirmed the party's resolve to cut ties with team Trudeau ahead of voters casting ballots. Advance polls open in both races this Friday and run through to Monday.  With their sights set on clinching the Montreal-area seat and the NDP trying to stave-off the Conservatives from gaining ground in a key battle for workers' votes in the Winnipeg-area riding, all eyes will be on ballot returns to see if the breakup helped their byelection fortunes.  "On the doorstep, they've been hearing, 'well, why do you keep voting for Trudeau?' I think it has everything to do with that. It's a bit of a desperation move, frankly, it's, a Hail Mary pass," said former NDP leader Tom Mulcair on CTV News Channel's Power Play.  The first confidence vote   With a fall economic update and spring federal budget on the horizon, there are a few built-in moments ahead on the political calendar where the Liberals will be looking for a crucial dance partner. But there's also the prospect of an opposition party advancing a motion of non-confidence, something Poilievre made clear he intends to pursue at their first opportunity when Parliament resumes through an opposition day motion, as they did unsuccessfully last spring.  Though that doesn't mean the government is doomed to fall that early this autumn.  The NDP have indicated that pulling their de facto support for the Liberals doesn't mean Singh is ready to push for an election, and they still plan to consider each confidence measure on its merits.  "I predict that they broke up, but they're still dating," Rona Ambrose, former interim Conservative leader, said on CTV News Channel's Power Play. "I think it's going to be very difficult for Jagmeet Singh to explain to people why he dumped the boyfriend, but is still seeing him behind Canadians' back."  Further, it would take more votes than the Conservatives caucus of 119 and the New Democrats caucus of 24 to have the majority support needed see Trudeau's Liberal government and its 154 MPs fall on a vote of non-confidence. This leaves the Bloc Quebecois caucus of 32 MPs essentially holding the balance of power. The NDP's polling numbers And, let's posit the New Democrats don't bite on the first non-confidence motion. It could be because, according to Nanos, the NDP may be wise to take more time to differentiate themselves as the progressive change option. Nanos told CTV News' Judy Trinh on Wednesday that the NDP have not politically benefited from their parliamentary pact, with the party still ranking lower than the Liberals in the polls. "Maybe it's a moral victory from a policy perspective, but it sure isn't a political victory in terms of gains in ballot support for the New Democrats," Nanos said. So, will the breakup put a fresh shine on the NDP brand? It could, but as CTV News' political commentator and Paul Martin's former communications director Scott Reid said on CTV News Channel's Power Play, buying himself time could also cost Singh politically. "Yes, the government is at 21 per cent but he's at 19. So he also needs time to have people say: 'Oh, well, he separated himself from the government. Now I'm going to take a second look at him,' … In the meantime, in order to preserve that pocket of time for that to occur… he's going to have to vote in favour of the government, and he's got to find a rationale for why," Reid said.

Quote of the day "Today I notified the prime minister that I have ripped up the supply and confidence agreement.  Canadians are fighting a battle.  A battle for the future of the middle class. Justin Trudeau has proven again and again he will always cave to corporate greed. The Liberals have let people down. They don't deserve another chance from Canadians. There is another, even bigger battle ahead. The threat of Pierre Poilievre and Conservative cuts… The fact is, the Liberals are too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests to fight for people. They cannot be the change, they cannot restore the hope, they cannot stop the Conservatives. But we can."   -  NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, in his one-minute and 40-second social media video, shot atop a luxury condo building overlooking Parliament Hill.

The week ahead Singh is holding a press conference on Thursday, where he's likely to face a barrage of questions from reporters about the timing and rationale of this decision, and his intentions when it comes to the next election. CTV News will carry Singh's availability live, and will have continuing coverage on this story, across platforms. Next week, both he and Trudeau will be meeting with their caucuses at retreats. I'll be bringing you the latest from the New Democrats in Montreal, while my colleague Mike Le Couteur will be covering the Liberal confab in Nanaimo, B.C.  Barring another political bombshell, I'll be back in your inboxes the following week.

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