For the first time in 50 years, the U.S. experienced negative net migration in 2025 because of the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal border crossings and heightened deportation efforts, an enormous victory for the White House as it faces renewed backlash against its heavy-handed enforcement tactics.
The U.S. had net migration of -10,000 to -295,000 due to a combination of deportations, self-exits, and a significant drop in illegal immigration resulting from increased border security measures, according to a new Brookings Institution analysis. Those numbers represent a significant victory for President Trump, whose successful campaign focused primarily on his vow to reverse the record illegal immigration numbers facilitated by President Biden’s lax border policies.
Brookings observes a decline in green cards issued, refugee inflows, temporary visas, paroles and notices to appear, and entries without encountering a border official in 2025 due to the Trump administration’s stricter approach. Those trends will likely continue in 2026 as the administration tightens green card eligibility, further limits visa issuances, and continues to reject applications for asylum or refugee status.
The State Department announced Wednesday that it would pause immigrant visa processing from 75 countries “whose migrants take welfare from the American people at unacceptable rates,” the latest in a series of moves designed to decrease immigration from impoverished countries.
In 2025, the U.S. removed between 310,000 and 325,000 illegal immigrants, a lower figure than the Trump administration’s public estimates. Brookings’s deportation number looks at border and interior removals. It is based on data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s reports and the Deportation Data Project. Immigrant outflows can also appear in the form of voluntary self-deportations in response to heightened law enforcement efforts.
Republican lawmakers dramatically increased ICE budget in the 2025 GOP budget megabill in order to fast-track deportations. Increased funding could potentially generate more deportation in 2026 as ICE bolsters staffing and infrastructure.
Brookings estimates the reduction in migration will weaken growth in consumer spending, employment, and GDP. This year, Brookings forecasts continued negative net migration resulting in similar economic impacts.
“Certain parts of the economy will see unexpectedly weak economic activity, such as businesses that serve part of the affected immigrant population. Such weakness is the new normal under current immigration policy, rather than weakness reflecting adverse business cycle conditions,” the report asserts.
A potential barrier to the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement could be mounting backlash to ICE’s presence in American cities. The killing of Renee Nicole Good by an ICE agent in Minneapolis last week has unleashed a fury of liberal backlash to ICE, a sentiment reflected in new polling following the shooting. ICE agent Jonathan Ross fatally shot Good as she drove her car in his direction during an enforcement operation.
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